SimpleFunctions

Click Bishop · Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary

Click Bishop is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 28¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?.

Price history

36¢ current

16¢
25¢50¢
May 8, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

Outcome

Click Bishop

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Tom Begich 95¢

Range

3¢-95¢

Family volume

$198K

Identifier

0x3342ecdd...2170

Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

36¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

22¢

Ask

50¢

Spread

28¢

Reported volume

$41K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Family volume

$198K

Orderbook snapshot

22 / 50¢

Polymarket
28¢ spread
BidSize
22¢5
19¢27
18¢102
16¢12
15¢5
12¢5
10¢5
9¢12
AskSize
50¢150
64¢31
68¢220
76¢8
77¢174
78¢318
82¢422
84¢900

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Identifier

0x3342ecdd…2170

SF Signal
SF Index
203.45
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 46¢, -10¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$198K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Tom Begich 95¢

Current share

21%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Tom Begich

polymarket · 0xe96f816325f6c2a18640183af71d976e7a59fae32ed47720168874066b2f2ae8

95¢
$11K$20.1

Bernadette Wilson

polymarket · 0x39dc2c86efd159ae5b0fddc70b0b15af308993353eff43b5725bf6a0e473ca83

67¢
$14K$0

Matt Claman

polymarket · 0x4427ce55f5fc0cc00f2708f914c585442bce7eede689d5daec4671449dc25f8d

42¢
$27K$0

Click Bishop

polymarket · 0x3342ecddb31d790a0aa690a12b3ef674d0c5014fcd5c3a50afb828b30f982170

41¢
$41K$00.8

Destry J. Payne Sr.

polymarket · 0xb8e253d3ef180de6596a972eeebe1e9f9595a2eab051b062355a956a2051b878

41¢
$62$01.8

Dave Bronson

polymarket · 0x7fdfdf3089f2926e189998489f530a1a4b3f90ee8d2d52f81d8774757f8ca762

35¢
$2K$00.1

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

polymarket · 0xdfa9c276f883ae7539684ceaf7289ff3db4b83003afb1b8f561f0a569368ff24

30¢
$3K$0

Treg Taylor

polymarket · 0x77396e9b7a44481197718658079006c7b1eff3e9e763007d6b4755fcbaf7c4df

28¢
$57K$0

Matt Heilala

polymarket · 0x24853c19d734365752c0080d4c571619d025f51bb87f6a5b0571c1af28d070fc

22¢
$3K$0

James Parkin

polymarket · 0xd7afa8f3868459d2c64479934411e90a9a3ed1a1961dc577f4d9bd05549bec6e

8¢
$2K$0

Adam Crum

polymarket · 0x73ed39e6ef4b022710fcfa177b343e68d057045833ce53a322062de48291fe91

6¢
$6K$00.3

Edna DeVries

polymarket · 0xe70dc5791fd703624bdd33fbdd6c4374bf51723c4c5e2fb88ee87857dc72d762

5¢
$12K$00.6

Shelley Hughes

polymarket · 0xc9fd5b3819b1cb07c59fed27c7566e80f5ea6892a34767b5cad49665d7d27e4d

5¢
$3K$300.6

Bruce Walden

polymarket · 0x1b752eca1cb98032be2d6b30c0e7cb7d7c9c960e50e7ee12b44565ae631fe7ef

4¢
$2K$0

Hank Kroll

polymarket · 0xd4e5831d2c951273ae9944cc3972eb09dc257a57d97ff5954ff2a443a194f318

4¢
$994$46

Nancy Dahlstrom

polymarket · 0xc42165d729164b01fe0f147307731c8d1cfb0c3e7db1920a83dbf04f751c1127

3¢
$13K$00.3

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

915.6%

IY (No)

289.7%

Adj IY

203%

CRI

2

RV

1895%

VR

6.54

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

915.6%
289.7%
Adj IY
203%
2
RV
1895%
VR
6.54
IAR
2.6/h
Overround
5.0%
LAS
0.78

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.