Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Begich
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
Bernadette Wilson
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
71 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Tom Begich
0xe96f81…2ae8
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Lesil McGuire
0x53b57e…81c0
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Gregg Brelsford
0xd3ce92…942d
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Bill Walker
0xef8afe…4300
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Destry J. Payne Sr.
0xb8e253…b878
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Jessica Faircloth
0xe3ca06…064d
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Bruce Walden
0x1b752e…e7ef
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
0xdfa9c2…ff24
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Matt Claman
0x4427ce…5f8d
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Bernadette Wilson
0x39dc2c…ca83
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: James Parkin
0xd7afa8…ec6e
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Shelley Hughes
0xc9fd5b…7e4d
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Edna DeVries
0xe70dc5…d762
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Adam Crum
0x73ed39…fe91
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Click Bishop
0x3342ec…2170
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Treg Taylor
0x77396e…c4df
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Hank Kroll
0xd4e583…f318
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Matt Heilala
0x24853c…70fc
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Nancy Dahlstrom
0xc42165…1127
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: Dave Bronson
0x7fdfdf…a762
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Tom Begich will advance from Alaska's gubernatorial primary at an 89% confidence level. Begich's commanding position likely reflects his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and polling standing relative to Republican opponents in the state's ranked-choice voting system. The market has substantially priced in his viability, though uncertainty remains around turnout patterns, late-breaking endorsements, or shifts in voter preference during the primary season. The Alaska primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract. Between now and then, quarterly fundraising disclosures, internal polling leaks, and any major candidate withdrawals could shift the probability meaningfully.
- ›Tom Begich's current fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to closest Republican competitors
- ›Alaska's ranked-choice voting mechanics and whether they favor Begich's coalition or enable splitting among opponents
- ›August 2026 primary election date and final voter turnout relative to historical baselines for Alaska gubernatorial races
- ›Any candidate exits or consolidations that would redirect support before the primary vote
- ›Recent public polling data on head-to-head matchups and candidate favorability among likely primary voters
What moved the line
- Jun 6Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins↓16pp48→32¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Click Bishop↓12pp49→37¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Treg Taylor↓11pp40→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Lesil McGuire↓9pp47→38¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Nancy Dahlstrom↓7pp10→3¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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