Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Matt Heilala is priced at a severe discount (10¢) with virtually no trading activity in 24 hours despite $14.5M open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position. The astronomical 2670% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the extreme underpricing relative to the 123-day timeframe, though the 9/10 cliff risk index indicates high uncertainty about whether Heilala will even remain a viable candidate through August 2026. The recent price decline from 11¢ to 10¢ combined with zero volume suggests this contract may be mispriced due to lack of market attention rather than genuine conviction about Heilala's chances in Alaska's top-four primary system.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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