What is the current probability for "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 67.4% and 304.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing Victor Wembanyama as a 74% favorite for the NBA 2K27 cover, but the asymmetric yield profile—69.3% for Yes versus 285.5% for No—suggests significant uncertainty despite the high price.

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74¢

Bid/Ask 68/74¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $2.65·OI $5,879.37·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXNBA2KCOVER-27-VIC

7-day price79 snapshots · 2 regime

72¢68¢ current

Apr 866¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing Victor Wembanyama as a 74% favorite for the NBA 2K27 cover, but the asymmetric yield profile—69.3% for Yes versus 285.5% for No—suggests significant uncertainty despite the high price. The recent 7-day decline from 71¢ to 67¢ combined with modest 24-hour volume of $137.70 and tight $5,774.54 open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential for sharp moves as we approach the January 2027 resolution date, which still offers 260 days for cover announcements to shift market sentiment.

Resolution rules

If Victor Wembanyama is announced as the main global cover athlete for NBA 2K27 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 67.4%

IY (No) 304.5%

Adj IY 152%

CRI 2

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	67.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	304.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	152%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:14:44 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA2KCOVER-27-VIC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →