SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 190d

Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27

Leader sits at 83% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

Victor Wembanyama

runner-up 19¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

19¢

Jalen Brunson

Spread

64pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$15K

liquid

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

190 days

Venue

Kalshi

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayVictor Wembanyama: 84% (31 days, 26 points)Victor Wembanyama: 84% on 2026-06-25Jalen Brunson: 19% (31 days, 30 points)Jalen Brunson: 19% on 2026-06-25Karl-Anthony Towns: 9% (31 days, 2 points)Karl-Anthony Towns: 9% on 2026-06-23
Victor Wembanyama84¢Jalen Brunson19¢Karl-Anthony Towns9¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 31d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 66% probability indicates that one specific player is currently favored to appear on the NBA 2K27 cover among multiple candidates. This level reflects trading activity on prediction markets where participants assess likelihood based on available information about player performance, popularity, and marketing strategy by the game's publisher. The probability could shift based on player performance during the 2025-26 NBA season, major injuries or career changes, and ultimately by the publisher's final cover athlete announcement, which typically occurs in late summer or early fall before the game's autumn release.

  • Current leader's market price reflects 66% probability, meaning traders assess roughly 1 in 3 odds the runner-up or other candidates win instead
  • NBA 2K cover selections historically depend on star power, current season performance, and commercial appeal rather than random selection
  • The 2025-26 season's ongoing performance data (playoff success, All-Star selections, injury status) directly informs cover likelihood through the announcement period
  • Publisher typically announces the cover athlete 2-3 months before the game's October/November release date, creating a hard resolution deadline
  • Trading volume on competing outcomes remains active, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which player will ultimately be selected

What moved the line

  • Jun 24Victor Wembanyama6pp7884¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Jalen Brunson5pp2116¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 25Jalen Brunson4pp1519¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Karl-Anthony Towns4pp59¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 18Jalen Brunson3pp1821¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.