Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing May 20, 2026. This market displays extreme volatility (622% realized, 1.90 vol ratio) and unusually high implied yields (1083%) despite a perfectly balanced 50-50 price, suggesting significant uncertainty about Season 5's plot rather than genuine edge-finding opportunity.

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50¢
Bid/Ask 40/59¢·Spread 19¢·Vol $956.466·OI $760.304·Closes May 20, 2026·28d remaining
0x0a020b012a76611a5b91aea37c84204faac13ea836e432af8a5c7eb55376465d
7-day price861 snapshots · 12 regime
78¢49¢ current
Apr 837¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market displays extreme volatility (622% realized, 1.90 vol ratio) and unusually high implied yields (1083%) despite a perfectly balanced 50-50 price, suggesting significant uncertainty about Season 5's plot rather than genuine edge-finding opportunity. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $1.9K open interest and a tight 5¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the market's size, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. The market closes May 20, 2026—coinciding exactly with the season finale—leaving minimal buffer for resolution clarity, and the elevated info arrival rate (3.4/hour) indicates active speculation as the show airs weekly starting April 8.

Resolution rules

"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1344.5%
IY (No) 1241.1%
Adj IY 1345%
CRI 1
RV 1001%
VR 2.78
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1344.5%
IY (No)1241.1%
Adj IY1345%
CRI1
RV1001%
VR2.78
IAR2.3/h
Overround5.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
19¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 5:55:03 PM
Observability mediumEvent type cultural
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x0a020b012a76611a5b91aea37c84204faac13ea836e432af8a5c7eb55376465d yes 100

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