What is the current probability for "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 652.8% and 31.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 9¢ spread and modest $1,398 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around the J.

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28¢

Bid/Ask 18/23¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $157.45·OI $1,596.2·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-JCO

7-day price79 snapshots · 3 regime

19¢18¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 9¢ spread and modest $1,398 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around the J. Cole feature outcome. The 796.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated relative to the 260-day timeframe, indicating the 28¢ price may be artificially depressed due to thin order books rather than fundamental bearishness. Recent price movement from 11¢ to 15¢ represents a 36% rally, but without volume confirmation this could reflect a single small trade rather than meaningful market repricing.

Resolution rules

If J. Cole is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 652.8%

IY (No) 31.5%

Adj IY 508%

CRI 5

RV 3135%

VR 5.83

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	652.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	508%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3135%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.83	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.22	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:25:02 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-JCO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →