Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Anduril IPO market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1424% implied yield for Yes positions against just 13.9% for No, yet the 10¢ price reflects only a 10% probability despite 259 days of runway and high realized volatility of 976%.
Analysis
This Anduril IPO market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1424% implied yield for Yes positions against just 13.9% for No, yet the 10¢ price reflects only a 10% probability despite 259 days of runway and high realized volatility of 976%. The 1¢ spread and modest $243.65 daily volume mask substantial open interest of $59k, while the 1¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket (9¢) suggests mild mispricing that could reflect Kalshi's slightly higher confidence in an IPO occurring. With a Cliff Risk Index of 10 and info arrival rate of 0.8/hour, this market appears to be pricing in significant tail risk around a binary corporate event rather than fundamental uncertainty about Anduril's IPO timeline.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-ANDURIL yes 100