Who will IPO before 2027
Leader sits at 92% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jersey Mike's
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Anthropic
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will IPO
Who will IPO before 2027?: Plaid
KXIPO-26-PLAID
Who will IPO before 2027?: Kraken
KXIPO-26-KRAKEN
Who will IPO before 2027?: Stripe
KXIPO-26-STRIPE
Who will IPO before 2027?: Anthropic
KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC
Who will IPO in 2026?: Beast Industries
KXIPO-26-BEAS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Shein
KXIPO-26-SHEIN
Who will IPO before 2027?: OpenAI
KXIPO-26-OPENAI
Who will IPO before 2027?: Databricks
KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Rippling
KXIPO-26-RIPPLING
Who will IPO before 2027?: Discord
KXIPO-26-DISCORD
Who will IPO before 2027?: Anduril
KXIPO-26-ANDURIL
Who will IPO in 2026?: Jersey Mike's
KXIPO-26-JERS
Who will IPO in 2026?: Gopuff
KXIPO-26-GOPU
Who will IPO before 2027?: Glean
KXIPO-26-GLEAN
Who will IPO before 2027?: Deel
KXIPO-26-DEEL
Who will IPO before 2027?: Celonis
KXIPO-26-CELONIS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Brex
KXIPO-26-BREX
Who will IPO before 2027?: Airwallex
KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX
Who will IPO before 2027?: Applied Intuition
KXIPO-26-AINTUITION
Analysis
This 27% probability reflects the chance that at least one major private technology company will complete an initial public offering by the end of 2026. Market pricing shows significant differentiation: Anthropic trades at 76 cents, suggesting elevated near-term IPO odds, while OpenAI at 47 cents indicates meaningful but uncertain near-term likelihood. The probability depends on two primary forces: company readiness and valuation preferences (whether founders and boards view public markets as favorable), and broader market conditions affecting IPO appetite. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any public statements from company leadership regarding capital plans. Economic conditions, interest rate expectations, and comparable technology IPO performance will influence whether companies proceed or defer offerings.
- ›Anthropic's 76-cent contract price implies market participants assess this company as most likely to IPO first, reflecting reported discussions with potential investors and stated capital-raising ambitions
- ›OpenAI at 47 cents suggests meaningful uncertainty around timing despite its market prominence, potentially reflecting governance complexities and ongoing strategic decisions about corporate structure
- ›Macro IPO market conditions: the aggregate 27% reflects relatively low confidence in near-term tech IPO activity, suggesting traders view current market appetite or company readiness as limited
- ›Most other major private companies (Stripe, Anduril, Glean) trade below 10 cents, indicating consensus assigns them substantially lower probability despite their valuations and market positions
- ›The 7-8 month remaining window to resolution (through end of 2026) compresses timing uncertainty; any company IPO filings in the next 2-3 months would materially shift probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 20Kraken↓7pp37→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Anthropic↓5pp85→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Anthropic↓4pp91→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Databricks↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Discord↓4pp57→53¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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