Who will IPO before 2027
Leader sits at 81% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shein
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
Oura
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
150 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will IPO
Who will IPO before 2027?: OpenAI
KXIPO-26-OPENAI
Who will IPO in 2026?: Oura
KXIPO-26-OURA
Who will IPO before 2027?: Anthropic
KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC
Who will IPO before 2027?: Stripe
KXIPO-26-STRIPE
Who will IPO before 2027?: Databricks
KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Ripple Labs
KXIPO-26-RIPPLE
Who will IPO before 2027?: Discord
KXIPO-26-DISCORD
Who will IPO before 2027?: Celonis
KXIPO-26-CELONIS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Shein
KXIPO-26-SHEIN
Who will IPO before 2027?: Ramp
KXIPO-26-RAMP
Who will IPO before 2027?: Anduril
KXIPO-26-ANDURIL
Who will IPO before 2027?: Glean
KXIPO-26-GLEAN
Who will IPO in 2026?: DeepSeek
KXIPO-26-DEEP
Who will IPO before 2027?: Deel
KXIPO-26-DEEL
Who will IPO before 2027?: Brex
KXIPO-26-BREX
Who will IPO in 2026?: Bloomberg
KXIPO-26-BMBG
Who will IPO in 2026?: Beast Industries
KXIPO-26-BEAS
Who will IPO before 2027?: Airwallex
KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX
Analysis
This market aggregates predictions on whether Anthropic will complete an IPO before the end of 2026, currently priced at 76% probability. The high likelihood reflects strong investor demand for AI-focused companies and Anthropic's established market position, though venture-backed firms often delay public offerings when private funding remains abundant. The probability could shift materially based on macroeconomic conditions, tech sector IPO sentiment, or explicit company statements about timing. A significant catalyst would be any announcement from Anthropic's leadership regarding IPO plans, or broader market moves affecting late-stage AI startup valuations. Secondary outcomes suggest competitors like Discord (53%) and OpenAI (27%) represent lower-probability alternatives.
- ›Anthropic's valuation and funding history: recent rounds at $15 billion+ valuation may influence readiness for public markets
- ›Regulatory environment: SEC oversight of AI companies and potential policy changes could affect IPO timing decisions
- ›Tech IPO market conditions: YTD 2026 IPO volumes, sector performance, and investor appetite for late-stage AI exits
- ›Competitive pressure: timing of rival AI company IPOs (particularly OpenAI or others) could accelerate or delay Anthropic's plans
- ›Company guidance: any official statements or investor communications about capital structure or public market plans from Anthropic leadership
What moved the line
- Jul 30Oura↑4pp64→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30OpenAI↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Oura↓3pp68→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Anthropic↑3pp70→73¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Shein↓3pp86→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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