What is the current probability for "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3555.8% and 6.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will recognize Palestine?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will recognize Palestine?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/13¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $2,066·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER

7-day price75 snapshots · 10 regime

7¢4¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 29

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 6¢(Δ -1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 2332.6%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

If Germany recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3555.8%

IY (No) 6.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 1506%

VR 2.96

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3555.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1506%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.96	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 8:25:52 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:23:56 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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