What is the current probability for "Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 78¢ (78% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 42.1% and 528.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 92¢ spread, making the 51¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading.

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78¢

Bid/Ask 61/94¢·Spread 33¢·Vol $0·OI $213.27·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x7e20c901df94dece914f2b7e4a3b01fa5784f8e55beacc56b1263527d3bb15dc

7-day price1410 snapshots · 7 regime

90¢78¢ current

Apr 1732¢Apr 30

Analysis

11d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 92¢ spread, making the 51¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading. The implied yields are unusually high at 136.7% for Yes and 148.1% for No, reflecting the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine probability divergence. With 257 days to expiration and only $39k open interest, this appears to be a thinly-traded position that would require significant capital commitment to move meaningfully, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest market participants view a Trump-Meloni meeting as a genuine toss-up.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 42.1%

IY (No) 528.9%

Adj IY 529%

CRI 4

RV 775%

VR 9.69

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	42.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	528.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	529%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	775%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:38:50 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:38:56 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x7e20c901df94dece914f2b7e4a3b01fa5784f8e55beacc56b1263527d3bb15dc yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →