What is the current probability for "Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1207.0% and 18.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 10/12¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $11,878.294·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xc05743834659d9b618a2a5ece270ad7e0846238178d4e0f7005b9d1deb808fb3

7-day price110 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢11¢ current

Apr 1011¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1207.0%

IY (No) 18.4%

Adj IY 988%

CRI 8

RV 2370%

VR 18.16

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1207.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	988%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2370%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	18.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:37:21 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:38:56 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc05743834659d9b618a2a5ece270ad7e0846238178d4e0f7005b9d1deb808fb3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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