Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This is an extremely illiquid micro-position with a 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This is an extremely illiquid micro-position with a 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1,741.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of ultra-low probability pricing on thin markets rather than genuine alpha, while the $400 open interest suggests minimal conviction from traders. With 678 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this market is too early-stage and thinly traded to offer actionable signal—the wide spread and lack of volume indicate you'd struggle to enter or exit a meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If Joe Holberg wins Chicago Mayoral Election in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMAYORCHI-27-JHOL yes 100