Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This is an extremely illiquid micro-position with a 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 4/10¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $1.02·OI $405.02·Closes Feb 23, 2028·673d remaining
KXMAYORCHI-27-JHOL

Analysis

4d ago

This is an extremely illiquid micro-position with a 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1,741.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of ultra-low probability pricing on thin markets rather than genuine alpha, while the $400 open interest suggests minimal conviction from traders. With 678 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this market is too early-stage and thinly traded to offer actionable signal—the wide spread and lack of volume indicate you'd struggle to enter or exit a meaningful position.

Resolution rules

If Joe Holberg wins Chicago Mayoral Election in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1302.1%
IY (No) 2.3%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 24
Overround -0.4%
LAS 1.50
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1302.1%
IY (No)2.3%
Adj IY0%
CRI24
Overround-0.4%
LAS1.50

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:57:07 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMAYORCHI-27-JHOL yes 100

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