Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing October 30, 2028. This market is severely illiquid with only $44 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment on Sergio Massa's 2027 chances.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $44 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment on Sergio Massa's 2027 chances. The 354% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and typical of thin markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns, though the high cliff risk index of 9 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics. With nearly two years until the October 2028 close date and the underlying election occurring in 2027, this contract remains too early-stage and illiquid to serve as a meaningful probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election in 2027 is Sergio Massa, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARGENTINAPRES-27-SMAS yes 100