Who will win the next Argentine presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 30, 2028
773 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?: Javier Milei
KXARGENTINAPRES-27-JMIL
Cluster 2
Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election
Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election?: Axel Kicillof
KXARGENTINAPRES-27-AKIC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for the next Argentine presidential election outcome. The 49% probability for this category of candidates suggests meaningful uncertainty about who will prevail in the next electoral cycle. Argentine presidential elections are shaped by economic conditions, inflation rates, and voter sentiment toward incumbent policies. The current 41-cent price for Kicillof contrasts with the 57-cent price for Milei, indicating market participants assess different candidates with varying likelihoods. Key drivers of movement include economic data releases, polling changes, and political developments. The specific timing of the next Argentine presidential election will be the primary catalyst resolving these contracts, as it determines actual outcomes against current price expectations.
- ›Current inflation and economic growth rates in Argentina relative to voter expectations and historical performance under different administrations
- ›Polling data showing relative support levels for major candidates, particularly comparing center-left and libertarian-aligned candidates
- ›Approval ratings and satisfaction metrics for the sitting president and government, which historically correlate with electoral outcomes
- ›Scheduled date of the next presidential election and any constitutional or political events that could affect candidate eligibility or timing
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts that could affect which candidate's coalition performs better in head-to-head matchups
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (26% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.