Who will win the next Argentine presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 30, 2028
858 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?: Javier Milei
KXARGENTINAPRES-27-JMIL
Cluster 2
Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election
Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election?: Axel Kicillof
KXARGENTINAPRES-27-AKIC
Analysis
This probability represents the aggregated market expectation that a specific candidate will win Argentina's next presidential election, currently priced at 73% for the leading outcome. Argentine presidential elections typically occur every four years, with the most recent general election in 2023. The high probability of the current leader reflects either consensus around their electability or strong recent polling momentum, while the runner-up at 64% suggests meaningful uncertainty about the final outcome. Key drivers of movement would include economic conditions in Argentina, polling data releases, campaign developments, and any major political shifts. The most significant catalysts would be official campaign announcements, major economic data (inflation, employment), or shifts in coalition dynamics ahead of the next scheduled election cycle.
- ›The 73% probability reflects a dominant but not overwhelming favorite—the runner-up at 64% shows the market prices meaningful uncertainty
- ›Trading volume on Kalshi contracts shows active participation, with Newsom and Vance contracts (16¢ and 18¢) generating the highest 24-hour volume, suggesting these are primary focal points for traders
- ›The large spread between the leading candidate (73%) and other options indicates concentration of probability mass rather than a fragmented field
- ›Contract pricing patterns will shift with published polling data, economic indicators, and official candidate announcements
- ›The election timing (typically every four years from the 2023 cycle) establishes a concrete resolution date that constrains probability adjustments
What moved the line
- Jun 25Javier Milei↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Javier Milei↓3pp56→53¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (47% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.