Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2029. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 206.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.8% on the No side, suggesting the 15¢ price may undervalue Igor Dodon's chances despite his recent loss in the 2024 election.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 206.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.8% on the No side, suggesting the 15¢ price may undervalue Igor Dodon's chances despite his recent loss in the 2024 election. The thin liquidity ($362 open interest, $146 daily volume) and wide 3¢ spread indicate low confidence in price discovery, while the modest 7-point cliff risk and neutral regime suggest no immediate catalysts are driving the recent 1¢ downward movement over seven days. With nearly 3.5 years until expiry, this contract appears mispriced relative to the substantial Yes-side yield opportunity, though the illiquidity warrants caution on position sizing.
Resolution rules
If Igor Dodon wins the next Moldovan presidential election before Oct 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOLDOVAPRES-28-IDOD yes 100