Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election
Leader sits at 22% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alexandr Stoianoglo
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Dorin Recean
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2029
1139 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election
Analysis
Current prediction markets price Alexandr Stoianoglo at 22% to win Moldova's next presidential election, reflecting his standing as the frontrunner among six tracked candidates. This probability reflects uncertainty about the timing and competitive landscape of the election, which has not yet been formally scheduled. Stoianoglo's position as the leading candidate stems from his previous polling performance and political visibility, though the 22% price indicates substantial remaining uncertainty—no single candidate commands majority confidence. The market also reflects that alternative candidates like Natalia Gavrilița (7%), Dorin Recean (12%), and Igor Dodon (11%) remain viable contenders. Key drivers of probability movement would include official election date announcements, shifts in public polling data, coalition formations or party mergers, and changes in candidate eligibility or campaign momentum. The formal scheduling of the election or any major electoral events would likely narrow the current wide spread of probabilities across candidates.
- ›No official presidential election date has been formally announced as of August 2026, creating timeline uncertainty that distributes probability across multiple candidates rather than concentrating it
- ›Stoianoglo's current 22% probability is the highest among six tracked candidates, but combined alternatives total 47%, indicating the market sees substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner
- ›Gavrilița's 7% price and $31 24-hour trading volume suggest some recent market activity around alternative candidates despite Stoianoglo's frontrunner status
- ›No single candidate price exceeds 25%, indicating fragmented voter preference or incomplete polling consensus in the market's assessment
- ›Historical Moldovan election volatility and coalition dynamics could cause rapid probability shifts if new political developments emerge before formal candidacy registration
What moved the line
- Sep 17Alexandr Stoianoglo↓20pp22→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Alexandr Stoianoglo↑11pp11→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (22% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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