Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2029. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 253.9% annualized return versus just 3.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Gavrilița's chances relative to market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 253.9% annualized return versus just 3.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Gavrilița's chances relative to market consensus. The contract has experienced notable upward momentum over seven days (from 6¢ to 10¢, a 67% move) despite minimal liquidity of just $291 open interest and $146 in daily volume, raising questions about price discovery reliability. With a high cliff risk index of 9 and over four years until expiration, the market appears to be pricing in substantial uncertainty around Moldova's political landscape, though the thin trading volume warrants caution before treating this 10% probability as a reliable consensus estimate.
Resolution rules
If Natalia Gavrilița wins the next Moldovan presidential election before Oct 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOLDOVAPRES-28-NGAV yes 100