Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4563% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4563% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The 3¢ price reflects an exceptionally low probability assignment to Switzerland winning the televote, though with such minimal liquidity, this pricing may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 259-day timeframe to expiry provides adequate resolution runway, but traders should be cautious of the high cliff risk index (32) and the wide spread, which suggests difficulty in executing meaningful positions.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Switzerland wins the Televote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONTELEV-26-SWI yes 100