Will 5 to 5 bills become law in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will 5 to 5 bills become law in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a staggering 10,728% annualized return versus 590% for No, reflecting the binary nature of hitting exactly 5 bills—a narrow legislative target.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a staggering 10,728% annualized return versus 590% for No, reflecting the binary nature of hitting exactly 5 bills—a narrow legislative target. The price has nearly tripled from 8¢ to 19¢ over seven days with only $0 in 24-hour volume and $233 open interest, suggesting the recent rally may be driven by minimal trading rather than informed conviction. With just 15 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market is highly sensitive to any legislative activity in April 2026, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with extreme volatility and the possibility of zero liquidity at resolution.
Resolution rules
If the President signs exactly 5 bills into law in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-5.0 yes 100