What is the current probability for "Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 30435.8% and 464.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This micro-cap market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $84 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable.

██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

16¢

Bid/Ask 11/17¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $89·Closes May 1, 2026·10d remaining

KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-6.0

7-day price20 snapshots · 2 regime

11¢11¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-cap market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $84 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical implied yield of 25,443% on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine edge, while the 7¢ spread represents 58% of the current price—a red flag for execution risk. With only 15 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market is too thin and close to resolution to trade meaningfully.

Resolution rules

If the President signs exactly 6 bills into law in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 30435.8%

IY (No) 464.9%

Adj IY 15218%

CRI 8

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	30435.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	464.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15218%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:16:24 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-6.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →