Will Amanda Pusczek be the Democratic nominee for AL-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Amanda Pusczek be the Democratic nominee for AL-04?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Amanda Pusczek is priced at a dominant 80¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and tight $1,870 open interest, suggesting this is either a consensus view or an illiquid niche market.
Analysis
Amanda Pusczek is priced at a dominant 80¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and tight $1,870 open interest, suggesting this is either a consensus view or an illiquid niche market. The extreme 294% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing if she doesn't secure the nomination, though the 5 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential resolution ambiguity around what constitutes the official Democratic nomination. With 566 days until expiry and a recent 2¢ price climb, the market appears to be pricing in either strong early frontrunner status or insufficient liquidity to challenge the current positioning.
Resolution rules
If Amanda Pusczek wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AL-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALPRIMARY-04D26-APUS yes 100