Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

The "Yes" position shows an extreme 1,319.5% implied yield, reflecting the 14¢ price's assessment that a first-round Brazilian presidential victory is highly unlikely—runoff elections are the norm in Brazil's system. The massive yield asymmetry (Yes at 1,320% versus No at 35%) combined with modest 24-hour volume of $831.58 and $15.4M open interest suggests this is a niche market with limited liquidity despite the high potential payout. With 170 days until the October 2026 election and only a 1¢ bid-ask spread, the market appears fairly priced but illiquid, making it suitable only for conviction bettors comfortable with low exit liquidity.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade