Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing October 28, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1152.9% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 30.6% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk premium.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1152.9% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 30.6% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk premium. The 22¢ price has surged dramatically from 1¢ seven days ago—a 1,300% move—despite zero 24-hour volume and only $450 open interest, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine probability shifts or thin-market volatility. With 194 days to expiry, the wide 10¢ spread and elevated cliff risk index of 6 indicate this contract remains highly speculative and difficult to trade at fair value.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25 yes 100