Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. The market is pricing in a 97% probability of a 0bps rate decision at the April 2026 BoC meeting, with the price climbing 2 cents over the past week to 97¢, suggesting growing consensus around no action.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 97% probability of a 0bps rate decision at the April 2026 BoC meeting, with the price climbing 2 cents over the past week to 97¢, suggesting growing consensus around no action. However, the extremely elevated "No" implied yield of 100,000% and risk-adjusted yield of 98,970% indicates severe mispricing or technical distortion on the downside, making the true probability assessment unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread and low $1,569.65 daily volume. With 12 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, traders should be cautious of sharp repricing closer to the April 29 resolution date, particularly if BoC communications shift unexpectedly.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 0bps at its Apr 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26APR-H0 yes 100