Will Botafogo win the Brasileiro Serie A?

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Botafogo win the Brasileiro Serie A?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing December 16, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $13 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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55¢
Bid/Ask 0/32¢·Spread 32¢·Vol $0·OI $13·Closes Dec 16, 2026·235d remaining
KXBRASILEIRO-26-BOT

Analysis

9d ago

This market is severely illiquid with only $13 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The asymmetric implied yields (122.5% for Yes vs. 183.0% for No) and wide 55¢ spread reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction about Botafogo's championship odds. With 244 days to expiration, there's ample time for the market to develop, but current conditions suggest this contract lacks sufficient depth for meaningful position-taking.

Resolution rules

If Botafogo is the 2026 Brasileiro Serie A Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 127.2%
IY (No) 190.0%
Adj IY 95%
CRI 1
Overround 1.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)127.2%
IY (No)190.0%
Adj IY95%
CRI1
Overround1.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
32¢
Computed
4/26/2026, 1:52:32 AM
Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 1:38:50 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBRASILEIRO-26-BOT yes 100

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