Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing an 8% probability that BTC's trimmed mean drops below $62,500 by April 30, 2026, with an extreme Yes-side implied yield of 40,590% reflecting the binary nature of this deep out-of-the-money bet.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 8% probability that BTC's trimmed mean drops below $62,500 by April 30, 2026, with an extreme Yes-side implied yield of 40,590% reflecting the binary nature of this deep out-of-the-money bet. Price has collapsed 71% over seven days (from 21¢ to 6¢), suggesting either a sharp reassessment of downside risk or declining conviction among Yes holders, though the modest $2,822.93 daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could amplify moves. The 1¢ spread and 16 Cliff Risk Index are reasonable for a low-probability event 14 days from expiry, but the realized volatility of 1,701% signals extreme underlying asset swings that could rapidly shift resolution odds.
Resolution rules
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever below $62500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26APR30-6250000 yes 100