Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $57,500.00
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Below $55,000.00
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$125K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $5
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin's trimmed mean price will remain below $75,000 by May 31, 2026—roughly a 45% chance. The current market pricing suggests traders see meaningful downside risk over the next seven weeks, though uncertainty remains substantial. Price movements depend primarily on macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. The contract structure reveals a distribution of expectations: markets assign only 4% probability to sub-$60,000 levels and 16% to sub-$70,000, indicating traders expect Bitcoin to trade in a relatively narrow band. The resolution date itself represents a near-term catalyst, as any major regulatory announcements, inflation data, or geopolitical developments before May 31 could significantly shift probabilities across the contract ladder.
- ›BTC trimmed mean is currently trading above $75,000, meaning prices must decline approximately 1.3% or more to resolve the headline contract below its strike
- ›The highest trading volume ($4,262 in 24h) concentrates on the sub-$70,000 contract at 16%, suggesting material downside moves would require substantial negative catalysts
- ›Fourteen days separate today from the resolution date; liquidity tapers sharply at extreme strikes ($60,000 at 4¢, $4 volume), indicating low conviction in severe drawdowns
- ›The multi-outcome contract structure creates a 29% gap between the $75,000 strike (45%) and runner-up outcomes, revealing disagreement about intermediate price levels
- ›Historical Bitcoin volatility patterns and the narrow 22-week timeframe constrain the probability distribution—traders are pricing limited extreme outcomes in both directions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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