Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 501% and a sharp 20-point price decline over seven days (53¢ to 44¢), suggesting significant new information or shifting candidate dynamics in NY-17.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 501% and a sharp 20-point price decline over seven days (53¢ to 44¢), suggesting significant new information or shifting candidate dynamics in NY-17. The 231.5% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $34.43 daily volume and $2,011.77 open interest indicates thin liquidity relative to the outsized returns being priced in, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing genuine uncertainty around Conley's nomination prospects rather than directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If Cait Conley wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-17 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNY17D-26-CCON yes 100