Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?: Beth Davidson
KXNY17D-26-BDAV
Cluster 2
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?: Cait Conley
KXNY17D-26-CCON
Analysis
This market estimates a 32% probability that Beth Davidson will become the Democratic nominee for the New York 17th Congressional District seat. The current odds reflect uncertainty around whether Davidson will be the strongest candidate in what appears to be an open or competitive Democratic primary. Market probability typically rises if Davidson secures endorsements from party leadership, generates fundraising momentum, or gains visibility through candidate forums and debates. The primary election date would serve as the critical resolution point, with early signs of candidate strength—such as polling data, cash-on-hand reports, or organizational capacity—likely to shift probabilities beforehand. Davidson's nomination chances depend on the strength of competing candidates in the primary field, her ability to build donor and grassroots support, and whether any major political developments affect the district's dynamics.
- ›Strength and number of competing Democratic candidates in the NY-17 primary field
- ›Davidson's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to opponents
- ›Endorsement patterns from party officials, unions, and local organizations
- ›Primary election date and timing of key candidate announcements or debate performances
- ›Recent polling or survey data among likely Democratic primary voters in the district
What moved the line
- Jun 23Cait Conley↓10pp86→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Beth Davidson↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Beth Davidson↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Cait Conley↑7pp75→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Cait Conley↑5pp82→87¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 0d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 0d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 0d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 0d
- Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12last 49% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (45% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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