Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
This contract is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$48.9M
Best sibling
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 7¢
Ticker
0xa0b56d7e…9afc
Price history
1¢ current
−3¢Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xa0b56d7e…9afc
Event family
China / Taiwan.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$48.9M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Xi Jinping 96¢
Current share
15%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
polymarket · 0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4
Xi Jinping out before 2027
polymarket · 0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7
Xi Jinping out by June 30
polymarket · 0x4ba35ccd015e3899f323b7b0bcb38ecab3a3c0fafc397666e690ba301fbeff30
China invades Taiwan
polymarket · 0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027
polymarket · 0x4c80df6f557bb0b9de08c0301ebdce500dd9bdc58400d9269fb8fab1709ed584
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30
polymarket · 0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Xi Jinping
polymarket · 0x7f347ed733252dc7afbd91e28104e23651b81ef6d2ef6805c7915c22e89a69b5
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027
polymarket · 0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027
polymarket · 0x057da165b096d1f3a59d87bcad68649aecd18dc25c89a6d083530d1aaac18146
June 30
polymarket · 0x0a41fdad163a6627011670f3825b0a7ba6846898edd967bf99e35edaf8e01c39
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027
polymarket · 0xd7e906eaec2c7f66697447785aa1d4fdaa82f536ca533a2bc0d3535b04e832ec
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027
polymarket · 0xc4eef02c621d3e8e506400736f327f0e71f0fafa4bc48e72c7b712b0982d1949
Taiwan
polymarket · 0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214
Xi Jinping
polymarket · 0x3d6148ee5b42224e83416e728fa2df2242ecb1e025782bece2d4f5b45a2ab987
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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