Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2027. The market prices a 19% invasion probability over the next 624 days with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers a 249.5% annualized yield versus just 13.7% for No, reflecting substantial tail risk compensation despite modest $1.6M daily volume.
Analysis
The market prices a 19% invasion probability over the next 624 days with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers a 249.5% annualized yield versus just 13.7% for No, reflecting substantial tail risk compensation despite modest $1.6M daily volume. The 1¢ spread and $245.8M open interest suggest reasonable liquidity, though the price has declined 5% over seven days, indicating recent de-risking sentiment. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and neutral regime conditions, this appears fairly priced for a geopolitical tail event, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution about potential liquidity constraints if resolution approaches.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d yes 100