SimpleFunctions
PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

This contract is priced at 68¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 67¢ bid, 69¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

68¢
$90K volume
$16K liquidity
0% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$48.9M

Best sibling

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 7¢

Ticker

0xd7e906ea…32ec

Price history

68¢ current

+5¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

67 / 69¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
67¢100
66¢24
65¢100
63¢235
62¢210
61¢122
60¢524
59¢1.6K
AskSize
69¢255
70¢300
71¢10
72¢5
79¢20
80¢10
81¢66
82¢279

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xd7e906ea…32ec

Event family

China / Taiwan.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$48.9M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Xi Jinping 96¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027

polymarket · 0xd7e906eaec2c7f66697447785aa1d4fdaa82f536ca533a2bc0d3535b04e832ec

68¢$90K$7620.0

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026

polymarket · 0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4

7¢$23.4M$335K0.0

Xi Jinping out before 2027

polymarket · 0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7

8¢$8.9M$97K0.0

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026

polymarket · 0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc

1¢$7.3M$21K

Xi Jinping out by June 30

polymarket · 0x4ba35ccd015e3899f323b7b0bcb38ecab3a3c0fafc397666e690ba301fbeff30

2¢$2.1M$32K

China invades Taiwan

polymarket · 0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11

51¢$1.8M$1K0.0

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027

polymarket · 0x4c80df6f557bb0b9de08c0301ebdce500dd9bdc58400d9269fb8fab1709ed584

9¢$1.7M$2K0.2

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30

polymarket · 0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66

2¢$1.2M$27K

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Xi Jinping

polymarket · 0x7f347ed733252dc7afbd91e28104e23651b81ef6d2ef6805c7915c22e89a69b5

1¢$984K$6K

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026

polymarket · 0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f

5¢$422K$2K0.2

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027

polymarket · 0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d

17¢$409K$240

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027

polymarket · 0x057da165b096d1f3a59d87bcad68649aecd18dc25c89a6d083530d1aaac18146

14¢$123K$2K0.1

June 30

polymarket · 0x0a41fdad163a6627011670f3825b0a7ba6846898edd967bf99e35edaf8e01c39

2¢$93K$253

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027

polymarket · 0xc4eef02c621d3e8e506400736f327f0e71f0fafa4bc48e72c7b712b0982d1949

2¢$80K$315

Taiwan

polymarket · 0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214

7¢$79K$199

Xi Jinping

polymarket · 0x3d6148ee5b42224e83416e728fa2df2242ecb1e025782bece2d4f5b45a2ab987

96¢$79K$6K0.0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

71.2%
321.6%
Adj IY
156%
2
LAS
0.03

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