What is the current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2027. 428 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 524.4% and 13.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2027.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 14/15¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $208.803·OI $115,414.943·Closes Jun 30, 2027·428d remaining

0x057da165b096d1f3a59d87bcad68649aecd18dc25c89a6d083530d1aaac18146

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 524.4%

IY (No) 13.9%

Adj IY 244%

CRI 6

LAS 0.07

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	524.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	244%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/28/2026, 11:28:15 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 11:23:53 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x057da165b096d1f3a59d87bcad68649aecd18dc25c89a6d083530d1aaac18146 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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