Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 81¢ (81% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 12, 2026. 20 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 694.4% and 4591.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	694.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4591.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2296%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	8.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?

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