Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing May 14, 2026. This market is pricing in near-certainty (97%) that Croatia will participate in Eurovision 2026, with just 27 days to expiry and minimal liquidity ($100 open interest, zero 24-hour volume).
Analysis
This market is pricing in near-certainty (97%) that Croatia will participate in Eurovision 2026, with just 27 days to expiry and minimal liquidity ($100 open interest, zero 24-hour volume). The extreme No-side yield of 12,127% reflects the tiny $0.03 ask price, creating a classic illiquidity trap where a small contrarian bet offers outsized returns but faces severe execution risk. The 9-cent spread and high cliff risk index (9/10) suggest this thin market could experience sharp repricing on any news regarding Croatia's participation status.
Resolution rules
If Croatia has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-26-HRV yes 100