Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 80% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
80%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2027
358 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Albania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Albania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Albania
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ALB
Cluster 2
Will Armenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Armenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Armenia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ARM
Cluster 3
Will Australia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Australia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Australia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AUS
Cluster 4
Will Austria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Austria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Austria
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AUST
Cluster 5
Will Azerbaijan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Azerbaijan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Azerbaijan
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AZE
Cluster 6
Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Belgium
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-BEL
Cluster 7
Will Bulgaria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Bulgaria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Bulgaria
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-BUL
Cluster 8
Will Canada officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Canada officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Canada
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CAN
Cluster 9
Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Croatia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CRO
Cluster 10
Will Cyprus officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Cyprus officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Cyprus
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CYR
Cluster 11
Will Czechia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Czechia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Czechia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CZE
Cluster 12
Will Denmark officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Denmark officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Denmark
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-DEN
Cluster 13
Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Estonia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-EST
Cluster 14
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Finland
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-FIN
Cluster 15
Will France officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will France officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: France
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-FRA
Cluster 16
Will Georgia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Georgia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Georgia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GEO
Cluster 17
Will Germany officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Germany officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Germany
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GER
Cluster 18
Will Greece officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Greece officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Greece
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GRE
Cluster 19
Will Israel officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Israel officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Israel
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ISR
Cluster 20
Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Italy
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ITA
Analysis
This reflects the estimated likelihood that Finland will officially enter the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest. The 55% probability sits between two divergent market assessments: Kalshi traders price participation at 61%, while Polymarket traders estimate 36%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about Finland's intentions. Finland has participated in nearly every Eurovision since 1961 and typically announces participation months in advance. Resolution depends primarily on whether Finland's broadcaster YLE formally confirms entry by the official submission deadline, typically in early 2026. The cross-venue gap indicates traders weight differently either Finland's historical participation patterns, current broadcaster funding decisions, or recent shifts in Eurovision engagement among Nordic countries.
- ›Finland's historical participation rate: contested in nearly every Eurovision since 1961, with only occasional absences
- ›YLE broadcaster funding and strategic decisions: Finnish broadcasting decisions typically announced 6-12 months before the contest
- ›Official submission deadline: the EBU's formal participation cutoff typically occurs 2-3 months before the May event
- ›Nordic region participation trends: patterns of other Scandinavian countries' Eurovision engagement and budget allocations
- ›Published statements from YLE or Finnish media regarding 2026 Eurovision participation as of Q1-Q2 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 1Albania↑83pp2→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Armenia↑83pp2→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Australia↑83pp2→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Austria↑83pp2→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Azerbaijan↑83pp2→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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