Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 82% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
82%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2027
311 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Albania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Albania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Albania
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ALB
Cluster 2
Will Armenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Armenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Armenia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ARM
Cluster 3
Will Australia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Australia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Australia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AUS
Cluster 4
Will Austria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Austria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Austria
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AUST
Cluster 5
Will Azerbaijan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Azerbaijan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Azerbaijan
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-AZE
Cluster 6
Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Belgium
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-BEL
Cluster 7
Will Bulgaria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Bulgaria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Bulgaria
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-BUL
Cluster 8
Will Canada officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Canada officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Canada
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CAN
Cluster 9
Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Croatia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CRO
Cluster 10
Will Cyprus officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Cyprus officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Cyprus
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CYR
Cluster 11
Will Czechia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Czechia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Czechia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-CZE
Cluster 12
Will Denmark officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Denmark officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Denmark
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-DEN
Cluster 13
Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Estonia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-EST
Cluster 14
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Finland
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-FIN
Cluster 15
Will France officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will France officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: France
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-FRA
Cluster 16
Will Georgia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Georgia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Georgia
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GEO
Cluster 17
Will Germany officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Germany officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Germany
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GER
Cluster 18
Will Greece officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Greece officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Greece
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-GRE
Cluster 19
Will Israel officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Israel officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Israel
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ISR
Cluster 20
Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027
Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?: Italy
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-ITA
Analysis
This probability represents whether Finland will officially compete in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, currently assessed at 83%. Finland is a regular Eurovision participant with consistent participation since 1961, aside from occasional non-participation years. The high probability reflects Finland's historical track record and typical broadcaster commitment to the event. The main factors affecting this estimate are broadcaster funding decisions, which typically occur months ahead of the contest, and any potential diplomatic or technical issues that could affect participation. The resolution will become certain once the European Broadcasting Union officially confirms the participating countries, which typically happens several months before the May 2026 contest date.
- ›Finland has participated in 58 of the last 65 Eurovision contests, showing strong historical participation rates
- ›YLE (Finnish broadcaster) budget allocations and commitment decisions for 2026, typically finalized by early 2026
- ›No recent public statements from Finnish authorities indicating withdrawal or non-participation for 2026
- ›Official EBU confirmation of participating countries, expected by Q1-Q2 2026
- ›Any geopolitical or domestic funding constraints that could affect broadcaster participation decisions
What moved the line
- Jul 18Canada↑6pp78→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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