Will Dina Titus be the Democratic nominee for NV-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Dina Titus be the Democratic nominee for NV-01?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread. The 655.4% implied yield on the "No" side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing—such yields are typically unsustainable and indicate either minimal trading activity or a market dysfunction. With 563 days until expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this contract carries significant uncertainty around the 2026 nomination process, making the current zero valuation questionable given Titus's incumbent status in NV-01.
Resolution rules
If Dina Titus wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NV-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-01D26-DTIT yes 100