Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
511 days
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jim Blockey be the Republican nominee for NV-01
Will Jim Blockey be the Republican nominee for NV-01?: Jim Blockey
KXNVPRIMARY-01R26-JBLO
Cluster 2
Will Marie Arnold be the Republican nominee for NV-01
Will Marie Arnold be the Republican nominee for NV-01?: Marie Arnold
KXNVPRIMARY-01R26-MARN
Cluster 3
Will Rick Saga be the Republican nominee for NV-01
Will Rick Saga be the Republican nominee for NV-01?: Rick Saga
KXNVPRIMARY-01R26-RSAG
Analysis
This probability indicates that Tera Anderson has a 41% estimated chance of becoming the Republican nominee for Nevada's 3rd congressional district. The market assessment reflects both her political positioning within Nevada Republican circles and the broader competitive dynamics of the primary race. Factors pushing the probability higher would include strong polling performance among likely Republican primary voters, endorsements from established party figures, or demonstrated fundraising strength. Conversely, the probability could decline if other candidates gain momentum or if Anderson faces significant controversies. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will provide the definitive outcome, though earlier indicators like candidate filing deadlines, debate participation, and polling trends will offer clues about her viability in the coming weeks.
- ›Primary election date of June 2026 will determine the Republican nominee for NV-03
- ›Anderson's current 41% probability suggests she faces at least one competitive challenger in the race
- ›Kalshi volume on this contract at typical market depth indicates moderate but not exceptional trader interest in this specific race
- ›Performance in any candidate debates or public forums prior to June voting could shift voter preferences materially
- ›Endorsements from Nevada Republican establishment figures or Trump-aligned leaders could meaningfully impact primary dynamics
Recently closed in election 2026
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- ME-02 Republican Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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