Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in only an 8% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean will touch $0.12 by end of April 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 17,275% implied yield with just 14 days to expiry—a classic high-risk, high-reward setup suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail risk.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only an 8% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean will touch $0.12 by end of April 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 17,275% implied yield with just 14 days to expiry—a classic high-risk, high-reward setup suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail risk. The 4¢ bid-ask spread and modest $174 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify volatility, while the realized volatility of 3,330% and cliff risk index of 7 signal this is a highly unstable market prone to sharp moves. Notably, DOGE would need to rally from current levels to $0.12 (a ~50% move from typical spot prices), and the recent 7-day price action (11¢ to 13¢) shows the market has already been testing these levels, making the 8% probability potentially undervalued if momentum continues.
Resolution rules
If the price of DOGE after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $0.12, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26APR30-012 yes 100