Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 9% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.11
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Above $0.12
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$514
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.1
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.11
KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26JUN30-011
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.12
KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26JUN30-012
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.13
KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26JUN30-013
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.17 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.17
KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26JUN30-017
Analysis
This market asks whether Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.14 by April 30, 2026. With markets pricing this at 29%, traders are assessing whether DOGE will maintain or exceed that level over the next four weeks. The probability reflects uncertainty about near-term cryptocurrency volatility, macroeconomic conditions, and DOGE-specific developments. Upward pressure would require sustained buying interest or positive catalysts; downward pressure could come from broader crypto weakness or profit-taking after any recent gains. The resolution date itself acts as the primary catalyst—no specific scheduled event appears to drive expectations, so the outcome depends on continuous market dynamics through late April rather than a discrete announcement or data release.
- ›DOGE's current price relative to $0.14 and recent 4-week price volatility compared to historical ranges
- ›Correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, since altcoins typically track major crypto assets
- ›Trading volume and order-book depth on major exchanges, indicating conviction behind current price levels
- ›Macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, risk sentiment) that typically influence speculative asset demand
- ›Absence of scheduled announcements or protocol changes that might create sudden directional pressure
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above $0.13↑25pp2→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above $0.13↓19pp27→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above $0.12↓14pp17→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above $0.12↑9pp8→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above $0.12↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.