Will Donald Trump endorse John Rose in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Donald Trump endorse John Rose in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing August 6, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $124 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $124 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The implied yield of 2,398.5% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment—such yields typically indicate thin markets where small positions distort pricing. With 112 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 7, this contract carries meaningful event concentration risk, and traders should be cautious that the low price may simply reflect minimal market activity rather than informed consensus that a Trump endorsement is unlikely.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump publicly endorses John Rose in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-JROS yes 100