Will Donald Trump endorse Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 6, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump endorse Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 70% likelihood that Donald Trump will endorse Nate Morris in Kentucky's 2026 Republican Senate primary before May 19, 2026. The high probability reflects Trump's historical pattern of endorsing candidates in Republican primaries and his political influence within the party. However, the outcome depends on whether Morris secures Trump's attention among competing endorsement requests, whether Trump calculates such an endorsement as strategically beneficial, and Morris's standing in the primary race. The 16-day window from today is narrow, making timing and Trump's schedule critical factors. The main catalyst for resolution is any public statement or endorsement from Trump before May 19, including social media posts, rally appearances, or direct communications to voters.
- ›Trump's track record of endorsing Republican primary candidates in 2024 and 2022 cycles, particularly in Senate races where he positioned himself as kingmaker
- ›Nate Morris's current position in Kentucky's Republican primary race and whether he appears competitive enough to warrant Trump's strategic endorsement
- ›Trump's publicly stated priorities and recent statements regarding Kentucky politics or Morris specifically, if any have been made
- ›The compressed 16-day timeframe limits opportunities for endorsement, requiring near-term public events or communications
- ›Alternative endorsement commitments Trump may have made or publicly signaled toward other Kentucky Republican candidates
What moved the line
- Jul 29Marsha Blackburn↓7pp15→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Marsha Blackburn↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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