What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 86¢ (86% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7666.9% and 100000.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026.

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86¢

Bid/Ask 86/88¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $30,676.57·OI $27,900.24·Closes May 1, 2026·1d remaining

KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26APR30

7-day price158 snapshots · 85 regime

91¢85¢ current

Apr 2412¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 38.7% for Apr 30, 2026 (as checked at May 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7666.9%

IY (No) >100,000%

Adj IY 96510%

CRI 6

RV 414%

VR 0.42

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7666.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	>100,000%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	96510%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	414%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.42	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:28:45 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:15 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26APR30 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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