Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 29% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 4, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
111 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Analysis
This market prices the likelihood that Donald Trump will issue an executive action declaring a national emergency related to the 2026 midterm election before November 4, 2026. At 29%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether such an action would occur during the election cycle. The current level suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible, potentially influenced by Trump's stated concerns about election integrity and his demonstrated willingness to invoke emergency powers. The probability would likely move based on Trump's public statements about the midterms, any legal or political pressure he faces, and the proximity to election day itself. The gap between the 30-cent price for a November deadline and 6 cents for a September deadline indicates traders expect any such action, if taken, would come closer to the election.
- ›Trump's public statements about 2026 election integrity or security concerns between now and November 4, 2026
- ›Whether Trump's legal situation (ongoing cases and convictions) changes in ways affecting his political strategy before the midterms
- ›Historical precedent: Trump invoked national emergency powers at least once during his presidency; analysts should assess whether current political conditions make such invocation more or less likely
- ›The Republican Party's electoral prospects heading into the midterms; stronger polling could reduce incentives for emergency declarations, while weaker polling might increase them
- ›Specific triggering events or alleged security incidents related to the 2026 election that Trump publicly connects to potential emergency action
What moved the line
- Jul 13Before Sep 1, 2026↑10pp10→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Before Nov 4, 2026↑8pp27→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Before Sep 1, 2026↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Before Nov 4, 2026↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12Before Sep 1, 2026↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (29% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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