Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 25% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 4, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$121
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
152 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
Analysis
This question asks whether President Trump will declare a national emergency regarding the 2026 midterm elections before July 1, 2026—roughly two months away. The 39% probability reflects meaningful but not dominant market expectation of such an action. The probability is driven by Trump's historical willingness to invoke emergency powers and rhetoric around election integrity concerns, balanced against institutional and legal constraints on emergency declarations. The cross-venue gap (Polymarket at 52% vs Kalshi at 38%) suggests disagreement about how seriously to weight Trump's recent statements and actions on election matters. The resolution clock is short: any executive action on this specific topic would need to occur within the next 60 days, making this a near-term event where market participants are pricing in elevated but uncertain odds based on current political dynamics and Trump's demonstrated executive approach.
- ›Trump has issued emergency declarations on non-traditional issues previously, establishing a precedent for expansive use of emergency powers
- ›A national emergency declaration on elections would face immediate legal challenges and potential congressional objections that create institutional friction
- ›No major midterm election-related crisis or event has occurred to date that would typically trigger emergency declarations
- ›Trump's public statements and administrative actions on election topics between now and July 1 will likely shift market probabilities significantly
- ›The 14-percentage-point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about the interpretation of Trump's recent communications and intent
What moved the line
- May 31Before Nov 4, 2026↓10pp27→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Before Nov 4, 2026↓6pp33→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before Nov 4, 2026↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Before Sep 1, 2026↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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