Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering a 391.4% implied yield versus 48.3% for No, suggesting sophisticated traders view a sub-44% Trump approval rating during late 2025-2026 as highly likely despite the 29¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering a 391.4% implied yield versus 48.3% for No, suggesting sophisticated traders view a sub-44% Trump approval rating during late 2025-2026 as highly likely despite the 29¢ price. The $1 daily volume against $7,209 open interest indicates severe illiquidity that could create slippage on meaningful position sizes, and the narrow 3¢ spread masks the underlying depth problem. With 265 days to resolution and a neutral regime, the market appears underpriced on the Yes side given historical Trump approval patterns, though the low volume warrants caution on execution.
Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ +9¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 44%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-44 yes 100