Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market is pricing Trump's approval rating staying above 46% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window at just 10%, an extremely bearish view that implies a 1,112% annualized yield for Yes holders—suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical precedent where Trump's approval has frequently exceeded 46%.
Analysis
This market is pricing Trump's approval rating staying above 46% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window at just 10%, an extremely bearish view that implies a 1,112% annualized yield for Yes holders—suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical precedent where Trump's approval has frequently exceeded 46%. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $2,996 open interest indicate illiquidity that likely contributes to the distorted pricing, while the recent tick from 10¢ to 11¢ suggests some contrarian accumulation. With 266 days to resolution and a wide 3¢ spread, this appears to be a mispriced tail risk bet where the implied probability significantly underestimates the baseline likelihood of Trump maintaining above-46% approval during a full year of polling.
Also on polymarket at 39¢(Δ -27¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 46%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-46 yes 100