Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub
Above 49% is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 49%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 49%
Rank
#7 of 8
Leader
Above 43% 23¢
Range
3¢-23¢
Family volume
$417
Identifier
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-49
Jun 18, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#7 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
Family volume
$417
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 49%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-49
Event family
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$417
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 43% 23¢
Current share
0%
Above 43%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43
Above 44%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-44
Above 45%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-45
Above 46%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-46
Above 47%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-47
Above 48%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-48
Above 49%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-49
Above 50%
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-50
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.