Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market prices Trump's approval rating exceeding 50% during late 2025-2026 at just 9%, implying extremely low probability despite the substantial 2612% implied yield on the Yes side—a stark asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about sustained high approval or potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market prices Trump's approval rating exceeding 50% during late 2025-2026 at just 9%, implying extremely low probability despite the substantial 2612% implied yield on the Yes side—a stark asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about sustained high approval or potential mispricing. The extremely thin liquidity ($4.4k open interest, $10.44 daily volume) and wide 4¢ spread create execution challenges, while the 19 cliff risk index indicates resolution uncertainty that could amplify volatility as the December 2025 measurement window approaches. Historical context matters here: Trump's approval has rarely sustained above 50% in major polling aggregates, making the 9¢ price arguably reasonable, though the massive Yes yield could attract contrarian bets if market sentiment shifts materially over the next 265 days.
Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ -11¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-50 yes 100