Will Eduardo Camavinga be in the France World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Eduardo Camavinga be in the France World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability for Camavinga's inclusion, yet the implied yield on the "No" side reaches an extraordinary 2463.9%, indicating severe mispricing or a complete absence of liquidity—typical of dead markets where the spread reflects uncertainty rather than genuine price discovery. With 59 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be treated as illiquid until volume materializes.
Resolution rules
If Eduardo Camavinga is selected for the final squad for the France national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26FRA-ECAM yes 100